Abstract
In settings of incomplete information, we put forward (1) a very conservative – indeed, purely set-theoretic – model of the beliefs (including totally wrong ones) that each player may have about the payoff types of his opponents, and (2) a new and robust solution concept, based on mutual belief of rationality, capable of leveraging such conservative beliefs. We exemplify the applicability of our new approach for single-good auctions, by showing that, under our solution concept, a normal-form, simple, and deterministic mechanism guarantees – up to an arbitrarily small, additive constant – a revenue benchmark that is always greater than or equal to the second-highest valuation, and sometimes much greater. By contrast, we also prove that the same benchmark cannot even be approximated within any positive factor, under classical solution concepts
